Learning extended tree augmented naive structures

This work proposes an extended version of the well-known tree-augmented naive Bayes (TAN) classifier where the structure learning step is performed without requiring features to be connected to the class. Based on a modification of Edmonds' algorithm, our structure learning procedure explores a superset of the structures that are considered by TAN, yet achieves global optimality of the learning score function in a very efficient way (quadratic in the number of features, the same complexity as learning TANs). We enhance our procedure with a new score function that only takes into account arcs that are relevant to predict the class, as well as an optimization over the equivalent sample size during learning. These ideas may be useful for structure learning of Bayesian networks in general. A range of experiments shows that we obtain models with better prediction accuracy than naive Bayes and TAN, and comparable to the accuracy of the state-of-the-art classifier averaged one-dependence estimator (AODE). We release our implementation of ETAN so that it can be easily installed and run within Weka.     

一种基于Gauss von Mises分布模型的非线性量测更新方法

基于状态空间模型的许多传统滤波算法都基于Rn空间中的高斯分布模型,但当状态向量中包含角变量或方向变量时,难以达到理想的效果。针对J.T.Horwood等提出的nS?R流形上的Gauss Von Mises(GVM)多变量概率密度分布,扩展了狄拉克混合逼近方法,给出了联合分布的GVM逼近方法,推导了后验分布的GVM参数计算公式,设计了量测更新状态估计算法。将J.T.Horwood等的时间更新算法与所提出的量测更新算法相结合,可实现基于GVM分布的递推贝叶斯滤波器(GVMF)。仿真结果表明,当状态向量符合GVM概率分布模型时,GVMF对角变量的估计明显优于传统的扩展卡尔曼滤波器。     

An optimal co-reinsurance strategy

This article considers a co-reinsurance strategy that (1) protects insurance companies against catastrophic risks; (2) enables insurers to gather sufficient information about the different risk attitudes of reinsurers and diversify their reinsured risks; (3) enables insurers to create better risk-sharing profiles by balancing the risk tolerances of reinsurers; (4) has the benefit of allowing reinsurers to accumulate experience with risks with which they are unfamiliar; (5) reduces the overall direct cost of a reinsurance contract; (6) allows a government to back some insurance products, such as the terrorism insurance programs that were established in many countries after the September 11th terrorist attacks; and (7) reflects the practical reinsurance industry of some countries, such as Iran. Such a co-reinsurance strategy can be fully determined by estimating its parameters whenever three optimal criteria are satisfied and prior information about the unknown parameters is available. Two simulation-based studies have been conducted to demonstrate (1) the practical applications of our findings and (2) the possible impact of any type of dependency between the co-reinsurance’s parameters and the evaluated optimal co-reinsurance strategy.     

Weak attractors for the dissipative fractional Heisenberg equation

In this short paper, we consider the long time behaviors of the fractional Heisenberg equation and the existence of a global weak attractor is proved for the shift dynamics in the path space. The key ingredient is some new type of commutator structure introduced in this paper, which seems indispensable in proving the compactness of the dynamics. The technique introduced in this paper may also be useful to other fractional order partial differential equations.     

MASS TRANSFER EXPERIMENTS ON SINGLE IRREGULAR-SHAPED PARTICLES

Mass transfer from irregular-shaped naphthalene particles (100-200 inn in size) was studitd in an electrodynamic balance. Charged particles were suspended in an electrostatic field directly in line with a calibrated air jet. Mass and size change histories were obtained under ambient conditions, and under steady- and pulsed-flow conditions. For natural convection, the time-averaged Sherwood number was similar to that for spheres. Forced-convection Sherwood number under steady-flow conditions was strongly dependent on particle shape and panicle Reynolds number, and was consistently higher than values predicted for spheres at comparable Reynolds numbers. This study validates the technique and indicates the shape effect on mass transfer form single particles.     

Bayesian knowledge base tuning

For a knowledge-based system that fails to provide the correct answer, it is important to be able to tune the system while minimizing overall change in the knowledge-base. There are a variety of reasons why the answer is incorrect ranging from incorrect knowledge to information vagueness to incompleteness. Still, in all these situations, it is typically the case that most of the knowledge in the system is likely to be correct as specified by the expert (s) and/or knowledge engineer (s). In this paper, we propose a method to identify the possible changes by understanding the contribution of parameters on the outputs of concern. Our approach is based on Bayesian Knowledge Bases for modeling uncertainties. We start with single parameter changes and then extend to multiple parameters. In order to identify the optimal solution that can minimize the change to the model as specified by the domain experts, we define and evaluate the sensitivity values of the results with respect to the parameters. We discuss the computational complexities of determining the solution and show that the problem of multiple parameters changes can be transformed into Linear Programming problems, and thus, efficiently solvable. Our work can also be applied towards validating the knowledge base such that the updated model can satisfy all test-cases collected from the domain experts.     

Bayesian Analysis of Exafs Data

In this paper we demonstrate the use of Bayesian analysis methods for the analysis of EXAFS data. We will discuss the physical parameters that may be estimated by the method and demonstrate the applicability of the method to Molybdenum coordination compounds.     

Gamma function to Beck–Cohen superstatistics

In this paper, we show a mathematical construction of Beck–Cohen superstatistics in the Bayesian point of view with the help of the two representations of a gamma function. Furthermore, it is shown how some results for superstatistics are related to each other.     

Harnack’s inequality for a class of non-divergent equations in the Heisenberg group

We prove an invariant Harnack’s inequality for operators in non-divergence form structured on Heisenberg vector fields when the coe?cient matrix is uniformly positive definite, continuous, and symplectic. The method consists in constructing appropriate barriers to obtain pointwise-to-measure estimates for supersolutions in small balls, and then invoking the axiomatic approach developed by Di Fazio, Gutiérrez, and Lanconelli to obtain Harnack’s inequality.